<td id="w7ad0"></td>

      <acronym id="w7ad0"><em id="w7ad0"><address id="w7ad0"></address></em></acronym>
          1. 搜索
            手機版 收藏
            首頁>新聞>債券

            債券收益率整體上行 境外機構持續增持

            ——2021年10月債券市場分析報告

            作者:陳櫻子 王明元 來源:《債券》 發布時間:2021-11-23

               

               

              202110月,國際大宗商品價格整體大幅上漲,全球通脹壓力增大,美國居民消費價格指數(CPI)同比增長6.2%,歐元區CPI同比增長4.1%。國內CPI同比上漲1.5%,工業生產者出廠價格指數(PPI)同比上漲13.5%,制造業PMI49.2%。本月貨幣政策操作實現資金凈投放1600億元,貨幣市場利率漲跌不一。債券收益率整體上行,中債-新綜合指數(凈價)有所下降。交易結算量大幅增長,境外機構持續增持。

              

              宏觀經濟情況

               

              (一)國際情況

               

              10月,國際大宗商品價格整體大幅上漲。紐約商品交易所(COMEX)黃金期貨價格收于1785.0美元/盎司,較上月末上漲1.56%。紐約商品交易所(NYMEX)原油期貨價格收于83.22美元/桶,較上月末上漲10.78%。倫敦金屬交易所(LME)期銅收于9544.0美元/噸,較上月末上漲6.66%。LME期鋅收于3397.5美元/噸,較上月末上漲12.78%,LME期鎳收于19635美元/噸,較上月末上漲9.14%。

               

              美國方面,10月新增非農就業人數53.1萬人,預期45萬人,前值為19.4萬人。失業率為4.6%,預期值為4.7%,前值為4.8%。核心PPI同比增長6.8%,預期增長6.8%,前值為增長6.8%;CPI同比增長6.2%,預期增長5.9%,前值為增長5.4%;核心CPI同比增長4.6%,預期增長4.3%,前值為增長4%。美國供應管理協會(ISM)制造業采購經理指數(PMI)為60.8%,預期值為60.5%,前值為61.1%;ISM非制造業PMI66.7%,預期值為62.0%,前值為61.9%。

               

              歐元區方面,10月調和CPI同比增長4.1%,預期增長3.7%,前值為增長3.4%;核心CPI同比增長2.1%,預期增長1.9%,前值為增長1.9%。Markit數據顯示,10月制造業PMI58.3%,預期值為58.5%,前值為58.5%;服務業PMI54.6%,預期值為54.7%,前值為54.7%;綜合PMI54.2%,預期值為54.3%,前值為54.3%。

               

              (二)國內情況

               

              1.CPI漲幅有所上漲

               

              10月,我國CPI同比上漲1.5%,漲幅比上月擴大0.8個百分點,其中,消費品價格上漲1.6%,服務價格上漲1.4%。CPI環比上漲0.7%,其中,消費品價格上漲1.1%,服務價格上漲0.1%。

               

              2.PPI漲幅擴大

               

              10月,我國PPI同比上漲13.5%,漲幅比上月擴大2.8個百分點;環比上漲2.5%,漲幅比上月擴大1.3個百分點;工業生產者購進價格同比上漲17.1%,環比上漲2.6%。

               

              3.制造業PMI49.2%

               

              10月,中國制造業PMI49.2%,低于上月0.4個百分點,繼續低于臨界點。非制造業商務活動指數和綜合PMI產出指數分別為52.4%50.8%,繼續保持擴張。

               

              4.社會融資規模存量同比增長10%

               

              10月末,社會融資規模存量為309.45萬億元,同比增長10%。社會融資規模增量為1.59萬億元,同比多增1970億元。

               

              5.M1同比增長2.8%,M2同比增長8.7%

               

              10月末,本外幣貸款余額為196.38萬億元,同比增長11.4%。其中,人民幣貸款余額為190.29萬億元,同比增長11.9%,增速與上月末持平,比上年同期低1個百分點。10月末,本外幣存款余額為236.42萬億元,同比增長9.2%。其中,人民幣存款余額為229.95萬億元,同比增長9.1%,增速比上月末高0.5個百分點,比上年同期低1.2個百分點。

               

              10月末,廣義貨幣(M2)余額為233.62萬億元,同比增長8.7%,增速分別比上月末高0.4個百分點,比上年同期低1.8個百分點;狹義貨幣(M1)余額為62.61萬億元,同比增長2.8%,增速分別比上月末和上年同期低0.9個和6.3個百分點;流通中貨幣(M0)余額為8.61萬億元,同比增長6.2%。

               

              6.貨幣政策工具實現凈投放

               

              10月,貨幣政策工具操作實現資金凈投放1600億元(見表1)。中國人民銀行通過逆回購操作投放13900億元,通過國庫現金定存投放700億元,通過中期借貸便利(MLF)投放5000億元;通過逆回購到期回籠12300億元,通過國庫現金定存到期回籠700億元,通過MLF到期回籠5000億元。

               

               

               

              貨幣市場運行情況

               

              10月,貨幣市場平均利率與上月平均利率相比漲跌不一。銀行間回購R01D品種平均利率下行8BP,為2.0218%;日均成交量為33859億元,環比增加6.81%。R07D品種平均利率較上月上行3BP,至2.2844%;日均成交量為2958億元,環比減少23.59%。

              

              債券市場價格走勢及特點

               

              (一)債券收益率整體上行

               

              10月,債券收益率整體上行。分券種來看,國債、政策性金融債、企業債(AAA)和中短期票據(AAA)各關鍵期限點平均收益率(不含隔夜收益率)分別為2.7560%、2.8544%、3.3334%3.2699%,較上月末分別上行11.75BP、9.94BP、0.19BP3.00BP。

               

              (二)國債收益率整體上行,中期國債收益率漲幅較大

               

              10月,1年期國債收益率較上月末下行2BP,至2.31%;5年期國債收益率較上月末上行13BP,至2.8438%;10年期國債收益率較上月末上行10BP,至2.9732%;15年期國債收益率較上月末上行6BP,至3.32%;30年期國債收益率較上月末上行7BP,至3.498%。

               

              (三)中債-新綜合凈價指數有所下降

               

              10月,中債-新綜合凈價指數從上月末的100.9659點下降至本月末的100.6342點,下降0.3285%;中債-新綜合財富指數從上月末的209.8546點下降至本月末的209.7583點,下降0.0459%。

              

              債券市場交易結算情況

               

              10月,中央結算公司辦理交易結算72.79萬億元,同比增長31.44%。其中,現券交易結算量為9.31萬億元;回購交易結算量為62.71萬億元,F券結算量最大的三類機構為商業銀行、證券公司和非法人產品,結算量分別為8.39萬億元、6.74萬億元、2.57萬億元。中央結算公司登記債券的換手率平均為10.98%(見表2)。其中,交易較活躍的債券為政策性銀行債、商業銀行債券和記賬式國債,換手率分別為27.10%、12.97%11.40%。

               

               

               

              債券市場存量和發行情況

               

              截至10月末,中央結算公司托管總量為84.56萬億元,同比增長12.63%;上海清算所托管總量為14.74萬億元,同比增長7.33%;中國結算托管總量為15.68萬億元,同比增長17.79%。

               

               

               

              10月,中央結算公司登記發行債券2.01萬億元,發行量前三大券種分別是地方政府債、國債和政策性銀行債。其中,地方政府債登記發行8688.60億元,占比43.20%;國債登記發行6267.00億元,占比31.16%;政策性銀行債登記發行3285.20億元,占比16.34%。

              

              境外機構動態

               

              10月末,境外機構在中央結算公司的托管量為3.52萬億元,同比增長31.09%,環比增持226億元,為境外機構連續35個月增持。境外機構通過全球通持債占比73.83%,通過債券通持債占比26.17%。境外機構持有前三大券種分別是國債、政策性銀行債和商業銀行債券。

                

               

               

              Bond Yields Shifted up and Foreign Investors’ holding Increased Further

              -- Bond Market Analysis for October 2021

               

              In October 2021, international commodity prices increased rapidly overall and the global inflation pressure has been increased. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 6.2% year-on-year while the CPI of euro area increased by 4.1% year-on-year. In China, CPI increased by 1.5% year-on-year, Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 13.5% year-on-year, Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) was 49.2%. In this month, monetary policy operations achieved a net money release for the amount of RMB 160 billion, and the rate of currency market showed ups and downs. Bond yields shifted up overall, and ChinaBond New Composite Index declined to some extent. The transaction and settlement of bonds market grew significantly, foreign investors’ holding increased further. 

              

              I. Macro Economy

               

              i. International Economy. 

               

              In October, the international commodity prices increased rapidly overall. COMEX Gold Futures Prices closed at $1,785.0/oz, up 1.56% from the end of last month. NYMEX Crude Oil Futures Prices closed at $83.22/BBL, up 10.78% from the end of last month. LME Copper Futures Prices closed at $9,544.0/ton, up 6.66% from the end of last month. LME Zinc Futures Prices closed at $3,397.5/ton, up 12.78% from the end of last month. LME Nickel Futures Prices closed at $19,635/ton, up 9.14% from the end of last month.

              

              In the US, the non-agricultural employment added 531 thousand, compared with the expectation of 450 thousand and 194 thousand last month. The unemployment rate was 4.6%, lower than the expected 4.7%, compared with 4.8% in the previous month. Core PPI rose by 6.8% year on year, same with the expected 6.8% and 6.8% in the previous month. CPI increased by 6.2% year on year, compared with the expected 5.9% and 5.4% in the previous month. Core CPI increased by 4.6% year on year, compared with the expectation of 4.3% and 4% in the previous month. The ISM manufacturing PMI was 60.8%, compared with the expectation of 60.5% and 61.1% in the previous month. The ISM non-manufacturing PMI stood at 66.7%, compared with the expected 62.0% and 61.9% in the previous month.

              

              As for the euro area, in October the adjusted CPI increased by 4.1% year on year, higher than the expected 3.7%, compared with 3.4% in the previous month; Core CPI increased by 2.1% year on year, compared with the expected 1.9% and 1.9% in the previous month. According to Markit, in October manufacturing PMI was 58.3%, lower than the expected 58.5% and 58.5% in the previous month; Service PMI stood at 54.6%, compared with the expected 54.7% and 54.7% in the previous month; Comprehensive PMI stood at 54.2%, compared with the expected 54.3% and 54.3% in the previous month.

              

              ii. Chinese Economy.

               

              1.The increase of CPI rose 

               

              In October, CPI increased by 1.5% year-on-year, 0.8 percentage higher than that of last month. Consumer prices rose by 1.6%, service prices rose by 1.4%. CPI rose by 0.7% month-on-month. Consumer prices rose by 1.1%, service prices rose by 0.1%.

               

              2.The increase of PPI expanded

               

              In October, PPI rose by 13.5% year-on-year and 2.5% month-on-month, 2.8 percentage higher than the last year and 1.3 percentage higher than the last month respectively; Industrial producer purchasing price rose 17.1% year-on-year, rose by 2.6% month-on-month.

               

              3.Manufacturing PMI was 49.2%

               

              In October, Chinese manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, 0.4 percentage points lower than the last month. Non-manufacturing business activity index was 52.4% while the Comprehensive PMI output index was 50.8%, remaining the expanding trend.

               

              4.The stock of Aggregate Financing to Real Economy rose by 10% year on year

               

              At the end of October, the stock of Aggregate Financing to Real Economy was RMB 309.45 trillion, increasing by 10% year on year. The increase of Aggregate Financing to Real Economy was RMB1.59 trillion, increasing by RMB 197 billion year on year.

               

              5.M1 increased by 2.8% and M2 increased by 8.7% year on year

               

              At the end of October, outstanding RMB and foreign currency loans totaled RMB 196.38 trillion, up 11.4% year on year. Outstanding RMB loans reached RMB 190.29 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 11.9%, remaining unchanged compared with the end of last month and 1 percentage points lower than previous year. RMB and foreign currency deposits amounted to RMB 236.42 trillion, up 9.2% year on year. RMB deposits were RMB 229.95 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, 0.5 percentage points higher than last month and 1.2 percentage points lower than last October.

              

              At the end of October, M2 stood at RMB 233.62 trillion, up 8.7% year on year, 0.4 percentage points higher than that of the previous month and 1.8 percentage points lower than that of previous year. M1 was RMB 62.61 trillion, up 2.8% year on year, 0.9 percentage points lower than the growth rate of the previous month and 6.3 percentage points lower than that of last year. M0 amounted to RMB 8.61 trillion, increasing by 6.2% year on year.

              

              5.Operation of monetary policy tools achieved a net release

               

              In October, a net amount of RMB 160 billion was release from the market by monetary policy tools (Table 1). The People’s Bank of China provided RMB 1390 billion through reverse repos, RMB 70 billion through deposits of treasury cash, RMB 500 billion through medium-term lending facility (MLF); while withdrawn RMB 1230 billion through close leg of reverse repo, RMB 70 through deposits of treasury cash, RMB 500 billion through matured MLF.

              

               

               

              II. Operation of the Money Market

               

              In October, money market rates basically showed ups and downs compared with the end of last month. The average rate on inter-bank repo R01D basically decreased 8bps, at 2.0218%; the average daily trading volume reached RMB 3385.9 billion, up 6.81% month on month. R07D increased by 3 bps from the end of last month to 2.2844%; the average daily trading volume reached RMB 295.8 trillion, down 23.59% month on month.

              

              III. Price Trend and Characteristics of the Bond Market

               

              i. Bond yield curves shifted up overall

               

              The yields of various bonds shifted up overall in October 2021. Specifically, the average yields of central government bonds, policy bank bonds, enterprise bonds (AAA) and short and medium-term notes (AAA) of key maturities (excluding the overnight yield) was 2.7560%、2.8544%、3.3334% and 3.2699%, up by 11.75bps, 9.94bps, 0.19bps and 3.00bps respectively compared to the end of last month.

               

              ii. The yields of Central government bonds move up in parallel slightly, the yields of medium-term Central government bonds showed an obvious increasing trend

               

              In October, the yield of one-year central government bonds decreased 2bps to 2.31% from the end of last month, the yield of five-year central government bonds increased 13bps to 2.8438% from the end of last month, the yield of ten-year central government bonds increased 10bps to 2.9732% from the end of last month, the yield of fifteen-year central government bonds increased 6bps to 3.32% from the end of last month, the yield of thirty-year central government bonds increased 7bps to 3.498% from the end of last month.

               

              iii. ChinaBond New Composite Net Price Index decreased to some extend

               

              In October, ChinaBond New Composite Net Price Index decreased from 100.9659 at the end of last month to 100.6342, down 0.3285%. The ChinaBond New Composite Total Return Index decreased from 209. 8546 at the end of last month to 209.7583 at the end of October, down 0.0459%.

              

              IV. Transaction and Settlement in the Bond Market

               

              In October, CCDC recorded transaction and settlement of RMB 72.79 trillion, increasing 31.44% year on year. Specifically, the transaction and settlement volume of cash bond was RMB 9.31 trillion, while that of repos was RMB 62.71 trillion. The most active trading parties for cash bonds registered at CCDC were commercial banks, securities firms and unincorporated products, with settlement value of RMB 8.39 trillion, RMB 6.74 trillion and RMB 2.57 trillion respectively. The average turnover registered at CCDC was 10.98% (Table 2). The active bonds were policy bank bonds, commercial bank bonds and book-entry CGB, with turnovers rate of 27.10%, 12.97% and 11.40% respectively.

              

               

               

              V. Bond Market Outstanding Volume and Issuance

               

              At the end of October, the CCDC’s total bonds outstanding volume were RMB 84.56 trillion, up 12.63% year on year. Those at SHCH reached RMB 14.74 trillion, up 7.33% year on year. Those at CSDC stood at RMB 15.70 trillion, up 19.71% year on year.

              

               

               

              In October, CCDC registered a total bond issuance of RMB 2.01 trillion, and most three largest issuance bonds were local government bonds, government bonds and policy bank bonds. Specifically, RMB 868.86 billion of local government bonds were issued, accounting for 43.20%; RMB 626.7 billion of government bonds were issued, accounting for 31.16%; RMB 328.52 billion of policy bank bonds were issued, accounting for 16.34%;

              

              

              VII. Foreign Investors’ Activities

               

              At the end of October, foreign investors’ holding under CCDC’s custody amounted to RMB 3.52 trillion, increasing by 31.09% year on year and more RMB 22.6 billion than last month, which is the increase of foreign investors’ holding for consecutive 35 months. Of the foreign investors’ holding under CCDC’s custody, amount via the Global Connect accounted for 73.83% and amount via the Bond Connect accounted for 26.17%. The top three bonds held by foreign investors were CGB, Policy bank bonds and Commercial bank bonds.

               

            0
            相關推薦 >

            中國財經報微信

            ×

            國家PPP微信

            ×
            欧美成人高清无影院码,欧美成人无码影库,中文字幕亚洲综合久久菠萝蜜,日本高清影院五卡码免费